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02/10/2012 - Navarra, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona, by its high standards, is sailing in chartered La Liga territory this season.
The Catalans have exhibited a certain level of dominance in Spain's top flight over the past few seasons, claiming three-straight La Liga titles.
But this season, Barcelona finds itself seven points adrift of leaders Real Madrid, sitting in second place with 48 points.
With Barcelona set to face Osasuna on Saturday at the Reyno de Navarra, it hopes to cut down Real Madrid's lead down to four points ahead of its Sunday fixture at the Bernabeu.
The deficit does not seem to worry defender Gerard Pique, who said that the reigning European champions are strong enough to still win the title.
"At the beginning of the season I would have happily signed up for this situation," Pique said. "Sometimes we win, others we don't, but we always want it. We feel strong enough to move ahead. Count on us being there in the fight at the end of the season."
Pique also offered a prediction for the remainder of the season.
"The struggle for the [La Liga] title is going to be a long one for whoever ends up winning it."
Barcelona has suffered just one loss this season, but its six draws have set the club off of the blistering pace set by Real Madrid.
The Catalans are unbeaten in their last eight league games, taking 22 points over that stretch.
Osasuna, tied with Malaga for eighth place on 28 points, has not picked up three points in a match since Dec. 18 when it defeated Villarreal, 2-1. Since then, Los Rojillos have drawn three and lost two.
Real Madrid, on a six-game winning run in La Liga play, will need a win to maintain the gap over Barcelona should the Catalans take maximum points Saturday. The Galacticos will have need to try and accomplish that feat against a difficult opponent Sunday as it welcomes fourth-place Levante to the Bernabeu.
Third-place Valencia appears to be out of the title race as it trails Real Madrid by 18 points, but the club now has their sights set on solidifying their place in the top three. Without a win in its last five matches, Valencia will look to pick up three points against second-from-bottom Sporting Gijon.
Elsewhere on Sunday, Espanyol welcomes Real Zaragoza to the Estadi Cornella-El Prat, Malaga hosts Mallorca at the Estadio La Rosaleda, Villarreal and Granada square off at El Madrigal, and Rayo Vallecano faces Getafe at the Teresa Rivero.
Racing hosts Atletico Madrid and Real Betis hosts Athletic Bilbao on Saturday, while La Liga play concludes on Monday with Sevilla looking to snap a seven- game winless run with three points at Real Sociedad.
<< Orioles ink veteran P Ayala
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles signed veteran
reliever Luis Ayala to a one-year contract on Friday.
The right-hander's deal includes a club option for 2013.
Ayala, 34, is familiar with the American Leagu
<< 49ers extend GM Baalke
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco 49ers have extended the
contract of general manager Trent Baalke through 2016.
49ers president and CEO Jed York announced the move via his Twitter account on
Friday.
Baalke, who was
<< Royals sign 12 players to one-year deals
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sean O'Sullivan and Blake Wood have agreed
to terms on one-year contracts with the Kansas City Royals.
The pitchers were just two of 12 players to sign a contract with the Royals
for the upcoming season
<< Everton's double proves too much for Twente
Enschede, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everton scored a goal in each half as
Heracles claimed a surprising 3-2 win at Twente on Friday, preventing the home
side from joining PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar at the top of the league.
Everton s
Berdych, Stepanek give Czechs 2-0 lead >>
Ostrava, Czech Republic (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 7 Tomas Berdych and
countryman Radek Stepanek gave the Czech Republic a 2-0 lead in Friday's
opening singles rubbers against visiting Italy.
Bolstered by a 90 percent first-
Jackets place Lebda, Methot on IR >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Blue Jackets placed
defensemen Brett Lebda and Marc Methot on injured reserve Friday.
Lebda was signed by Columbus on January 19, and has picked up one goal in five
games since.
M
Wi leads by 3 at Pebble Beach; Tiger falls six back >>
Pebble Beach, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Charlie Wi carded a three-under 69 on
Friday at Pebble Beach to take a three-stroke lead after two rounds of the
Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.
Wi, who was one of three first-round leaders, finis
NHL fines Lightning F Moore >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Hockey League fined Tampa Bay
Lightning forward Dominic Moore $2,500 on Friday.
The fine stems from an interference play to New Your Rangers forward Ruslan
Fedotenko on Thursday.
The in
El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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