Bears Might Stand Between Pack, Postseason

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's official. This Roger Goodell guy is a genius.

But it's not because the league's new "flex scheduling" plan allowed him to slot Brett Favre in the weekend's NBC spotlight for what could be the final game of his career, while simultaneously saving Pink from waxing sexily over another edition of the flaccid Browns-Texans AFC blood feud.

Because in reality, as the nation is thanking the new commish and collectively reaching for its cheese-scented Kleenex while pondering gridiron life without the "will he retire, won't he retire" soap opera, Goodell and his fellow league big shots will actually be in New York trying to derive meaning from the most convoluted of playoff pictures.

Though left for dead early in the season after a 1-4 start and even further dismissed after a three-game mid-Fall losing streak dropped them to 4-8, Favre and his Green Bay mates actually enter the final game of the season with a chance to advance their quarterback's assumed-to-be-ending career beyond Sunday's fourth quarter at Soldier Field.

But rather than the traditional "a win gets this team in, a loss gets this one in" scenario to assign the NFC's final postseason berth, the topsy-turvy 2006 schedule has created a schematic in which archaic phrases like "strength of victory" have been chipped out of the ice to try and create separation between the five teams still in contention.

The Packers, winners of three straight since an inglorious 28-point pasting by the New York Jets on Dec. 3 at Lambeau Field, can jump from conference slot No. 7 to No. 6 - now held by the New York Giants - and reach the promised land of January competition with the exact construction of any of five positive weekend blueprints.

A Green Bay win over Chicago and a Giants loss to Washington on Saturday are the common thread in three of the five scenarios, though each would nonetheless require an additional step - 1) a St. Louis loss or tie, or 2) a Carolina win, or 3) an Atlanta win, respectively - for the Packers to advance.

An improbable Green Bay tie coupled with a Giants loss would necessitate a Rams loss, a Falcons loss or tie and a Panthers loss or tie to give Favre another week; while wins by both the Packers and the Giants would trigger the strength of victory clause that would break the 8-8 tie in Wisconsin's favor with eight other fortuitous NFL results.

And somewhere, a computer geek is smiling.

Meanwhile for the 13-2 Bears, who clinched home-field advantage throughout their stay in the playoffs with last week's 26-21 defeat of Detroit - their fourth win in a row, by the way - the script for Week 17 takes far less memorization.

"We want to finish out the season with another victory," wide receiver Rashied Davis said. "That's it."

SERIES HISTORY

Chicago holds an 87-78-6 advantage in the series, which dates back to the 1921 season, and has a three-game winning streak over the Packers. The Bears were 26-0 road winners when the teams met in Week 1, and also swept the 2005 home- and-home. Green Bay's last win in the series was a 31-14 triumph at Soldier Field in 2004. The Bears were 19-7 victors when the two faced off at Soldier Field last season. Chicago has not won four straight games against Green Bay since it took five consecutive in 1990-92.

For all their storied history together, the teams have met just once in the postseason, a 33-14 Bears victory in a 1941 NFL Playoff.

Chicago's Lovie Smith is 4-1 versus the Packers as a head coach, while Green Bay's Mike McCarthy is 0-1 against both Smith and Chicago.

BEARS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS DEFENSE

The question this week will be exactly what balance the Bears' sideline bosses decide to strike between winning this game and staying healthy for the ones that matter next month.

Much-maligned quarterback Rex Grossman, a winner in 17 of his 22 career starts in the NFL, completed 20 of 36 passes over three quarters last week against the Lions before sitting out the fourth while backup Brian Griese led the team on a come-from-behind scoring drive.

Griese, in his limited duty, completed six of nine passes for 51 yards.

Also exiting the game along with Grossman were No. 1 running back Thomas Jones and premier wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad.

"No players ever want to come out of the game," Smith said. "They want to play the entire time. The game was on the line, but the plan in my mind coming in was to let Rex at least get into the third quarter and then from there, well, you saw the guys we took out there then. We took out 'Moose.' We took out Thomas. We wanted to do that a little bit without messing up the chemistry of the team, and I think we were able to do that."

If the aforementioned trio again sees only limited duty, the Packers will see a second-string featuring former Tampa Bay starter Griese - who's completed 13 of 17 passes for 96 yards this season - along with ex-No. 1 draft pick Cedric Benson (144 carries, 538 yards, six touchdowns) and big play wideout Bernard Berrian (50 catches, 758 yards, six touchdowns).

For the season, the Bears are 13th in the league in total yardage, having averaged 325.5 yards per game. Their rushing attack is 15th overall at 118.9 yards per game, while the Grossman/Griese pair is 13th with a weekly output of 206.7 yards.

Green Bay is 13th overall defensively (321.2 yards per game) and is highlighted by reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week Aaron Kampman, who won the honor for the second time this season with his three sacks, four QB hurries and seven tackles in the Packers' 9-7 defeat of Minnesota.

Kampman, a fifth-year man from Iowa, has a career-high 15.5 sacks on the season, tying him for the NFL lead and prompting his selection to February's Pro Bowl.

Defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has six sacks in his last four games against the Bears, including a career-best four in a January 2005 game. Elsewhere, cornerback Charles Woodson had two interceptions and a fumble recovery in his last game at Chicago.

Woodson's seven interceptions are first in the NFC.

PACKERS OFFENSE VS. BEARS DEFENSE

If it's indeed the last dance for Favre, the ex-MVP exits with a 2006 stat sheet that's either impressive or suspect - depending on where you look.

The veteran's 3,600 passing yards have contributed to Green Bay's 234.6 yards per game through the air, good for eighth in the league and largely responsible for Pro Bowl wideout Donald Driver's team-best 89 catches for 1,272 yards and seven touchdowns.

However, Favre has also thrown 17 interceptions to go with his 17 TDs, contributing to the Packers' minus-5 turnover ratio.

December has been the gunslinger's trademark month in his career, yielding a 48-18 mark in 66 starts on or after Dec. 1. In addition, he is 21-8 lifetime against the Bears, a winning percentage of 72.4.

Ahman Green is just 12 yards away from reaching 1,000 for the sixth time in his career, which would eclipse the franchise mark he now shares with Hall of Famer Jim Taylor. As a team, the Packers have averaged 104.4 yards on the ground, good for 23rd in the NFL.

Green has also caught 42 passes for 334 yards and one TD, to go with his five rushing scores.

Driver and Green were both listed as probable on the team's Wednesday injury report, nursing shoulder and knee problems, respectively.

Chicago's stingy defense, like its offense, will depend largely on who plays and how much.

Cornerback Charles Tillman (back) and linebacker Leon Joe (hamstring) are listed as questionable, with Tillman missing practice. The team is already without fearsome lineman Tommie Harris, who is out for the season with his own hamstring injury.

The Bears are fifth overall and first in the NFC in total yardage allowed with a weekly clip of 288.9 yards, though they've been looked at more closely recently after allowing 27, 31 and 21 points in three straight games following an early season in which only two foes exceeded 20.

As a unit, they've not allowed a touchdown to Favre in three straight games, a stretch during which they've snatched eight interceptions.

Linebacker Brian Urlacher was named to his sixth Pro Bowl, becoming the first Bear since Hall of Famer Mike Singletary to reach that frequency. Also, rookie cornerback/kick returner Devin Hester will accompany Urlacher to Hawaii after six touchdown returns through 15 games.

Hester had an 84-yard punt return for a score against the Packers in September.

Rookie Mark Anderson leads the team with 12 sacks, which is tied for third in the NFC, while Ricky Manning Jr. and Tillman share the team lead with five interceptions.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

As much as "trap game" gets overused in the early stages of the NFL season, this week will mark the drastic over-flooding of the "one team has more to play for" logic that traditionally permeates schedule-closing games.

Here, however, it might very well apply.

On a level playing field, as September's result suggests, the Bears are a far better team. In December and securely in "keep everyone from getting hurt" mode, though, the needle might just tip to the Green Bay side of things.

Whether the playoffs wind up hinging on the result or not, expect Favre to summon the magic for one last spotlight-grabbing performance - until he announces next summer that he's decided to come back and do it all over again one more time.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Packers 24, Bears 14

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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